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Absolute cost advantage

At any given level of quantity produced, the incumbent firm has lower costs of production than the new firm. This cost difference is due to extra knowledge gained over time, endowment of natural rights, possession of patents, cost of capital to new firms, and many other factors.

Access

Access by households/individuals to adequate resources (entitlements) for acquiring appropriate foods for a nutritious diet.

Accessibility

One of the four pillars of food security and describes a household's ability to physically, economically, and socially obtain a necessary amount of food on a regular basis by purchasing, bartering, borrowing, or receiving food aid or gifts.

See Availability.

Acute food insecurity

Food insecurity at a specific moment in time, regardless of causes, context, or duration. Severity is defined by assessing the degree to which households can meet basic survival needs and maintain their normal livelihoods.

Agroclimatology

A field in the interdisciplinary science of agrometeorology, in which principles of climatology are applied to agricultural production systems. Its origins relate to climate’s foremost role in plant and animal production.

Agroecology

The study of agricultural ecosystems and their components as they function within themselves and in the context of the landscapes that contain them.

Analogue year

A year in history that shares key characteristics with the current year and can, therefore, help to support assumptions about how the current year may progress. In food security analysis, analysts commonly use analogue years in relation to climate and seasonal forecasts. Information about current atmospheric and oceanic conditions/patterns helps identify similar years that may suggest likely precipitation and temperature behavior. Analysts can also use analogue years to examine other issues, such as market behavior and food prices.

Anomaly

Something that deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected. There are different types of anomalies:

• Difference from average: This is the actual observation minus the long-term average. Difference from the average is useful for quantifying deficits and surpluses in the same units as the original observation. 0 = no difference; positive means above average; negative means below average.

• Percent of average: This is the actual observation divided by the long-term average and multiplied by 100 (to convert to percent). The percent of average is useful for relatively quantifying deficits and surpluses. 100 = same as average; >100 means above average, <100 means below average.

• Standardized anomaly: This is the difference from the average divided by the standard deviation. Seasonal forecast maps may present the standardized anomaly. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, a commonly used drought measure) uses a standardized anomaly.

Arbitrage

Taking advantage of a price differential. The two most common types of arbitrage related to food security are spatial arbitrage (where commodities are moved from areas or markets with lower prices to areas or markets with higher prices, and the difference exceeds the transfer costs) and temporal arbitrage (where commodities are obtained, stored and sold at a point in the future when prices are expected to be higher and the difference exceeds the costs associated with the temporal transfer.

Assembly market

A market where smaller quantities of a commodity are accumulated or aggregated, usually from different farmers and small-scale traders. Assembly markets facilitate marketing and the movement of commodities as well as reduce the costs of marketing. They can also enable sellers of smaller surpluses from more remote locations to reach distant buyers.

Assumptions

For the purpose of scenario development, assumptions are judgments about the anticipated type, magnitude, and timing of future events or conditions. Assumptions are the product of an analysis of current conditions (e.g., rainfall pattern to date), past experiences (a reference period or how a similar series of events unfolded, such as a previous drought), official or unofficial estimates or projections, qualitative or quantitative data, and/or expert judgment. Assumptions can be made at any level of analysis (i.e., household, village, market, district, national, regional, or international). Assumptions form the basis of a scenario and support and reasonably limit its scope.

Atmospheric circulation

The flow, or movement, of a fluid (e.g., liquid or gas) in or through a given area or volume.

Availability

1. One of the four pillars of food security. The total amount of food present in a country or given area by means of domestic production, imports, food stocks, and food aid.

2. Availability of sufficient quantities of food of appropriate quality, supplied through domestic production or imports (including food aid).

Barriers to entry

The degree to which firms can influence market prices so that they earn large profits while restricting the potential entry of rival firms into the industry. The major categories of barriers to entry are absolute cost advantage and economies of scale.

Baseline

The quantified analysis of sources of food and income and expenditure for households in each wealth group over a defined reference period.

Baseline storage sheet

A spreadsheet that enables field teams to enter, check, and analyze individual interview data in the field and to analyze and summarize field data during the interim and final data analysis sessions.

Baseline year

See Reference year.

Border point

The exact place (often, but not always, a market location) within the Reporting Country where the trade flow is observed.

Budget share

The portion (percentage) of the household budget spent on a given good (maize), service or grouped goods and services (food). This is essentially the same thing as expenditure shares.

Capital constraints

The difficulty of obtaining capital to start a business.

Capital cost

Cost of purchasing or renting capital goods.

Chronic food insecurity

The persistent or seasonal inability to consume adequate diets for a healthy and active life, mainly due to structural causes. Chronic food insecurity occurs even in average, non-crisis years when shocks do not occur.

Climate

Average weather over a long period of time: the composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a region, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years.

Climate mode

A description of one aspect of the way Earth’s climate behaves. Identifiable characteristics include variations in temperature, precipitation, and wind speed/direction. An example of a climate mode is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Climatology

The study of climate, scientifically defined as weather conditions averaged over a long period of time. However, when we say we expect climatology in terms of forecasts, these are not simply average conditions, but include the range of variability in rainfall quantity, spatial distribution, and temporal distribution that are historically possible for a region.

Coefficient of variation (CV)

The standard deviation divided by the mean. This measure puts the variability in a context of the average rainfall. Areas with large variability relative to the mean represent locations especially vulnerable to seasonal variation. Coefficient of variation is a useful statistic for comparing the degree of variation from one data series, or one location, to another, even if the means differ.

Collective action

The process of farmers jointly acting as a group in production, processing, or marketing activities.

Collusion

1. When rival companies and traders cooperate, overtly or covertly, for their mutual benefit.

2. The act in which traders jointly determine the prices at which they buy agricultural products from farmers.

Commission

A percentage of money that a trader or agent charges for conducting a transaction on behalf of a seller or buyer.

Commodity

Something tangible, that has value and can be exchanged. Commodities include food and cash crops, livestock, non‐food consumer items, and even labor.

Commodity availability

Monitors the availability of a product in a particular market to identify abundance, stability, or scarcity

Commodity balance

The balance of staple foods.

Commodity flow

The movement of commodities through space, generally from surplus to deficit areas.

Competition

A market structure in which there are many sellers of a product.

Complementary good

Also, Complement

A commodity which is consumed in combination with another commodity. When demand for one commodity rises, demand for the other will also rise.

Conduct

Also, Market conduct

The patterns of behavior that traders follow and strategies that they employ in adjusting to the markets in which they sell or buy.

Conglomerate conduct

The act of businesses merging together and doing businesses that may or may not be related.

Consumer basket

A typical household’s market (expenditure) basket of goods, services, fees, etc. It is used for tracking the prices of consumer goods and services and the overall cost of living. The basket may be comprised of the actual quantities of consumption goods or services acquired or used by households in some period. Sometimes, a consumer basket can also be made up from hypothetical quantities created.

Consumer price index (CPI)

An index of consumer prices which measures the change in prices associated with a typical market basket of goods and services over time. The CPI expresses current prices in terms of prices during the same period in a previous year (base or reference year), to show inflation or changes in purchasing power.

Consumption season

Also, Marketing season

The period of time during which agricultural output is sold, typically extending from one harvest period to the next.

Contract sale

A transaction that specifies a price of a commodity and the date of delivery at a future period of time.

Coping

Contending with difficulties and acting to overcome them. In food security, we typically speak of coping capacity and coping strategies. For the purpose of scenario development, we distinguish between coping strategies that, if successful, help to mitigate acute food and income deficits (e.g., the sale of assets) and coping strategies that indicate reduced dietary quantity or quality (e.g., skipping meals).

Coping capacity

The ability of households to diversify and expand access to various sources of food, income, and other basic needs, and thus to cope with a specific stress.

Coping strategies

Activities to which people resort in order to obtain food, income and/or services when their normal means of livelihood have been disrupted or other shocks/hazards decrease their access to basic needs.

Core CPI

A price index where certain items are excluded from the CPI basket on the basis that their prices are highly volatile, subject to temporary influences or are affected by government policies. The index is used to calculate “core inflation” and reflects the underlying inflationary pressures in the economy.

See Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Corn

Also, Maize

Maize is the plant, and corn is the kernel or grain, but corn can refer to kernels of different plants, not just maize. In some countries, including North America, maize and corn are used interchangeably, but this is not the case in most parts of the world. In general, we use maize when referring to the crop.

Cost insurance freight (CIF)

Pricing or valuation of a good, including all of the costs (known as transfer costs) of delivering a good to the point of consumption. It may be contrasted with the FOB (or free on board) where the transfer costs are excluded. Imports are often valued at CIF prices, and exports at FOB prices.

Cost of living index

An index that measures, between two periods, the change in the minimum expenditures that would be incurred by a consumer, in order to maintain a given level of standard of living or welfare, assuming that his/her preferences or tastes remain unchanged.

Crisis

IPC phase 3. Households either:

Have food consumption gaps that are reflected by high or above-usual acute malnutrition.

OR

Are marginally able to meet minimum food needs but only by depleting essential livelihood assets or through crisis-coping strategies.

See International Phase Classification (IPC).

Crop phrenology

Crop phenology is the study of periodic plant lifecycle events and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variations in climate, as well as habitat factors (such as elevation).

Crop tours

A tool used to assess conditions in designated areas to help gauge the impact on food security and strengthen FEWS NET assumptions about the upcoming seasons.

Cross border trade

The movement of commodities from one country to a neighboring country, and is usually measured in terms of magnitude (e.g., metric tons) and direction (from country A to country B).

Cross price elasticity of demand

The relationship between two commodities which can be substituted for one another (see also to elasticity of demand).

See Elasticity of Demand.

Data series

A collection of related data points from a single data source that are viewable as a single row within a table. They represent the change over time of a specific indicator.

Dataset

A collection of data series that relate to a particular subject within a domain

Deficit areas

Areas that either do not produce or produce an insufficient amount of a given commodity to meet local demand (derived or final demand).

Dekad

Ten-day period, usually referring to a period of rainfall, starting on the first day of the month. Every month is composed of exactly three dekads. The last dekad of the month comprises days 21 through the end of the month, and can contain 8 to 11 days.

Demand curve

The relationship between the price of a commodity and the quantity that buyers are willing or able to buy, with all other things being equal. For most commodities, there is an inverse relationship between price and quantity demanded: a rise in price is associated with a decline in quantity demanded.

Derived demand

Demand for a commodity to be used as an input to another productive activity (e.g., the demand for maize as feed for poultry production).

Destination

The country where goods were ultimately delivered.

Dipole

Two opposing patterns in space.

Domain

Also, Data domain

A logical grouping of data that contains a collection of data series.

Drought

A drought is a period of below-average precipitation in a given region, resulting in prolonged shortages in the water supply, whether atmospheric, surface water or ground water. This document, however, distinguishes between a single failed rainy season and consecutive failed rainy seasons; the latter is referred to as a drought.

Dynamic analysis of margins

Analysis of changes in marketing margins over time.

Dynamical forecasts

Dynamical models use laws of physics and observed conditions to estimate future conditions.

Economies of scale (EOS)

The reduction in costs of producing an extra unit of output. Usually related to the minimum efficient level of output at which a firm can produce efficiently relative to market size.

Effective demand

The desire to buy together with the ability pay for as good or service. Those who have a desire to buy but cannot pay the price or cost are said to have limited or no effective demand.

Effective exchange rate (EER)

The actual rate at which one unit of foreign currency is exchanged for local currency.

Elastic demand

A commodity for which the percentage changes in demand is proportionately greater than the percentage change in price. For example, a one percent change in the price of the good or service leads to a greater than one percent change in the quantity demanded.

Elastic supply

A commodity for which the percentage changes in supply is proportionately greater than the percentage change in price. For example, a one percent change in the price of the good or service leads to a greater than one percent change in the quantity supplied.

Elasticity

Measure of a percentage change of one thing relative to a percentage change in another. For example, the price elasticity of demand is the percentage change in quantity demanded relative to the percentage change in the price.

Elasticity of demand

The percentage change in quantity demanded relative to the percentage change in the price.

• Own price elasticity: When the change in quantity demanded is related to the price of the commodity.

• Cross price elasticity: When the change in quantity demanded is related to the price of another commodity.

Elasticity of supply

The percentage change in the quantity supplied relative to a percentage change in the price of a commodity.

Emergency

IPC phase 4. Households either:

Have large food consumption gaps which are reflected in very high acute malnutrition and excess mortality.

OR

Are able to mitigate large food consumption gaps but only by employing emergency livelihood strategies and asset liquidation.

See International Phase Classification (IPC).

Ensemble forecast

An ensemble forecast is either a collection of model runs (using the same model) started from slightly different initial conditions, or a collection of model runs using different models. This tests the strength of forecasts; if ensembles give similar results (a convergence of evidence), then we have confidence in the forecast.

Equity

A situation in which resources are relatively distributed to all members of society.

Exchange efficiency

A situation in which all benefits from trade have been exhausted and it is not possible to do further exchange without reducing the happiness of another agent.

Exchange rate

The rate at which one currency can be exchanged for another.

Exchange terms

The terms under which goods and services are exchanged in transaction.

Exclusionary pricing

Also, Predatory pricing

Occurs when one firm lowers and maintains its price below costs until other efficient firms exit the market. Predatory ricing eliminates competition (results into monopoly power).

Expectations

What a market actor believes will occur at some point in the future, and that time frame is usually defined. For example, the price a seller believes they will receive three months in the future.

Expenditure shares

The portion of a household’s expenditures allocated to a particular good, service or group of goods and services. This is essentially the same as budget shares.

Export parity price (XPP)

The monetary value of a product sold at a specific location in a foreign country, but valued from a specific location in the exporting country.

Famine

IPC phase 5. Households have an extreme lack of food and/or other basic needs even after full employment of coping strategies. Starvation, death, destitution, and extremely critical acute malnutrition levels are evident. For Famine Classification, an area needs to have extreme critical levels of acute malnutrition and mortality.

See International Phase Classification (IPC).

Farm gate

At or near the farm or location of production. Usually, but not always, the place where a commodity is first exchanged. Farmers can also bring their produce to assembly, wholesale and even retail markets.

Farm gate price

The price that the farmer or producer receives at the farm or location of production. It is the price of the product available at the farm, excluding any marketing costs or transport and delivery charges.

Food balance sheet (FBS)

Presents a comprehensive picture of the pattern of a country's food supply during a specified reference period. A food balance sheet shows the sources of supply and utilization for each food item.

Food item

Each primary commodity and a number of processed commodities potentially available for human consumption.

Food price index

A price index where only food items appearing in the consumer basket are included in the calculation of the index.

Food security (FS)

Food and nutrition security is achieved when adequate, safe, and nutritious food is available, accessible to, and well utilized by all individuals at all times to support a healthy and productive life.

Food security conditions

The context with regard to external circumstances and influences related to food security; includes the variables, causal factors, and drivers of food security. Food security conditions are different from food security outcomes. Outcomes refer to the final situation faced by households or areas once all conditions and responses have been analyzed. For example, food security conditions may describe seasonal progress, food prices, and labor demand, while food security outcomes describe whether households are able to access and utilize the food needed for a healthy life.

Food security outcomes

The net result of changes in household incomes and food access plus the effect of response by households, governments, or other actors in terms of food consumption, livelihoods maintenance, nutritional status, and mortality risk. Outcomes can be positive or negative. A description of food security outcomes should explain who is food insecure (e.g., what population or wealth group; the size of the food insecure population) and the expected duration and severity of food insecurity.

Forecast skill

Skill is measured by calculating the difference between a model forecast and observed conditions. An acceptable threshold of skill is chosen by a person responsible for running a model. The threshold for skill is subjective. Model runs exceeding the defined threshold of skill are considered to have skill and are, therefore, reliable for predicting the climate.

Foreign exchange premium (FXP)

The percentage that the Official Exchange Rate (OER) overvalues the local currency.

Formal trade

Typically large quantities transported by road, rail or ship which are inspected, taxed and reported in official statistics. Formal trade is typical legal trade.

Free on board (FOB)

The price of a commodity loaded on board a carrier at the port of exit.

Geographic unit

May be national or sub-national, and include several unit types such as Administrative Unit, Market, Border Point, Crop Production Reporting Unit, or Livelihood Zone.

Global Support Unit (GSU)

At the global level, the IPC is governed by the IPC Global Steering Committee and is composed of senior officers representing the 15 partner organizations. The Steering Committee is responsible for strategically guiding and positioning the IPC globally. The GSU is the operational arm of the IPC Global Steering Committee. Hosted at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, the IPC GSU promotes the IPC within global decision-making structures and develops and updates IPC protocols and technical guidance based on inputs from the Technical Advisory Group (TAG). It also provides capacity development, technical and communication support to countries, as well as quality assurance oversight, among other things.

See Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).

Groundnuts

A variety of legumes that produce seeds on the ground. Peanuts are a type of groundnut.