Scenario

In the context of food security analysis, an informed “if/then” analysis that communicates shocks, their impacts on household food and income sources, response by both households and other actors, and the net food security outcomes for different households in specific geographic areas. Scenarios are rooted in a series of reasonable assumptions based on existing conditions, historical information, and expert judgment. Scenarios are used to project future food security outcomes and inform decision-making processes.

scenario development a methodology for forecasting future events. It relies on analysis of the current situation, the creation of informed assumptions about the future, a comparison of their possible effects, and the likely responses of various actors.

Scenario outcome A quantified estimate of access to food and cash arising from an outcome analysis, taking into account the effects of the hazard and household responses to it, for each of the wealth groups.

Seasonal arbitrage (temporal arbitrage) is taking advantage of the price differential over time, usually over the agricultural season. The differential must exceed all costs associated with handling and storing the commodity.

Seasonal calendar A graphical presentation of the months in which food and cash crop production and key food and income acquisition strategies take place, also showing key seasonal periods such as the rains, periods of peak illness and the hunger season.

Shock An atypical event or series of events (either rapid or slow-onset), that has a significant impact. Shocks can be positive (e.g., a significantly better-than-average harvest) or negative (e.g., a failed below-average harvest or an unseasonable increase in food prices).

Shocks An atypical event or series of events (either rapid or slow-onset) that have a significant impact. Shocks can be positive (e.g. a significantly better than average harvest) or negative (e.g., a failed harvest or rising food prices). A shock differs from a hazard in that it is an event which has already occurred or is occurring while a hazard indicates a potential threat.

Short-cycle crops Crops that mature generally in 90 days or less, such as wheat, barley, and teff.

Slow onset emergency an emergency that builds over time and thus provides some early indication of the emergency that could be mounting. Droughts and continuous economic decline are all slow onset emergencies.

Source the country where goods originated

Spatial arbitrage taking advantage of the price differential across locations or markets. The differential must exceed all costs in moving the commodity from one location or market to another.

Spatial arbitrage taking advantage of the price differential across locations or markets. The differential must exceed all costs of in moving the commodity from one location or market to another (costs of the inter‐spatial transfer). A simple measure of potential spatial arbitrage is the difference between the prices observed for the same product in two different locations.

Spatial Variability Changes in climate across a landscape.

Spatial variability Changes in a climatic variable (e.g., rainfall, temperature) across a landscape.

Speculators are people who buy contracts to buy and/or sell commodities/stocks for profit without physically moving or storing the commodities/stocks.

Spot markets physical markets in which farmers and traders converge to buy and sell products at a given period of time.

Standard of living is a level of material comfort as measured by the goods, services, and luxuries available to an individual, group, or nation. The standard of living can also capture broader aspects of well‐being or the quality of life such as health, education, etc.

Static analysis of margins is an analysis of the composition/structure of marketing margins at any one point in time.

Statistical forecast Statistical forecasts use previously derived mathematical relationships between two or more variables to produce an estimate of one of those variables given knowledge of the other variables.

stressed IPC phase 2 - Households have minimally adequate food consumption but are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in stress-coping strategies.

Structure refers to the number and size distribution of buyers and sellers, the degree of product differentiation and the ease of entry of new firms into an industry.

SCP Structure‐Conduct‐Performance a framework or an approach to market analysis that is based on the premise that the structure of a market influences the conduct of its participants (buyers, sellers and other participants), which, in turn, influences the performance of markets. While the SCP framework is originally an outgrowth of Industrial Organization, a branch of economics, the approach presented here has been adapted to food security analysis.

S‐C‐P Structure‐Conduct‐Performance an analytical approach or framework used to study how the structure of the market and the behavior of sellers of different commodities and services affect the performance of markets, and consequently the welfare of the country as a whole.

Substitute (commodity) a commodity that can replace another such as millet for sorghum. They are commodities or goods that can be used to satisfy the same needs, one in the place of another. When the price of one commodity rises, consumers will decrease their consumption of it and increase consumption of the substitute commodity. Wild and gathered products can be substitutes.

Substitute good is a commodity that can replace another in consumption or production such as millet for sorghum. When the price of one commodity rises, consumers will decrease their consumption of that commodity and increase consumption of the substitute commodity.

Supply chain is the series of production, transformation and transfer activities/functions that start with raw material and natural resources and ultimately provide a product for sale to a consumer.

Supply chain level is a segment of the supply chain, comprising of a specific activity or a small set of specific activities (e.g. packaging and storage).

Supply curve the description of the relationship between the price of a commodity and the quantity that sellers are willing or able to sell, with all other things being equal. For most commodities, there is a direct relationship between price and quantity supplied: a rise in price is associated with a rise in quantity supplied.

Surplus areas are areas that produce in excess of that demanded locally and therefore can provision other areas.

Survival needs amount of food and cash income required to ensure survival in the short-term, i.e. to cover minimum food needs, costs associated with food preparation and consumption, and expenditure on water for human consumption.

Survival threshold The total food and cash income required to cover the food and non-food items necessary for survival in the short term. It includes (i) 100% of minimum food energy needs; (ii) the costs associated with food preparation and consumption; and (iii) where applicable, the cost of water for human consumption.