Scenario

In the context of food security analysis, an informed “if/then” analysis that communicates shocks, their impacts on household food and income sources, response by both households and other actors, and the net food security outcomes for different households in specific geographic areas. Scenarios are rooted in a series of reasonable assumptions based on existing conditions, historical information, and expert judgment. Scenarios are used to project future food security outcomes and inform decision-making processes.

Scenario

development

A methodology for forecasting future events. It relies on analysis of the current situation, the creation of informed assumptions about the future, a comparison of their possible effects, and the likely responses of various actors.

Scenario

outcome

A quantified estimate of access to food and cash arising from an outcome analysis, taking into account the effects of the hazard and household responses to it, for each of the wealth groups.

Seasonal

arbitrage

Also, Temporal Arbitrage

Taking advantage of the price differential over time, usually over the agricultural season. The differential must exceed all costs associated with handling and storing the commodity.

Seasonal

calendar

A graphical presentation of the months in which food and cash crop production and key food and income acquisition strategies take place, also showing key seasonal periods such as the rains, periods of peak illness and the hunger season.

Shock

An atypical event or series of events (either rapid or slow-onset) that have a significant impact. Shocks can be positive (e.g. a significantly better-than-average harvest) or negative (e.g., a failed harvest or rising food prices). A shock differs from a hazard in that it is an event that has already occurred or is occurring, while a hazard indicates a potential threat.

Short-

cycle crops

Crops that mature generally in 90 days or less, such as wheat, barley, and teff.

Slow

onset emergency

An emergency that builds over time and thus provides some early indication of the emergency that could be mounting. Droughts and continuous economic decline are all slow onset emergencies.

Source

The country where goods originated.

Spatial

arbitrage

Taking advantage of the price differential across locations or markets. The differential must exceed all costs in moving the commodity from one location or market to another. A simple measure of potential spatial arbitrage is the difference between the prices observed for the same product in two different locations.

Spatial

variability

Changes in climate across a landscape.

Speculators

People who buy contracts to buy and/or sell commodities/stocks for profit without physically moving or storing the commodities/stocks.

Spot

markets

Physical markets in which farmers and traders converge to buy and sell products at a given period of time.

Standard of

living

A level of material comfort as measured by the goods, services, and luxuries available to an individual, group, or nation. The standard of living can also capture broader aspects of well‐being or the quality of life, such as health, education, etc.

Static

analysis of

margins

An analysis of the composition/structure of marketing margins at any one point in time.

Statistical

forecast

Statistical forecasts use previously derived mathematical relationships between two or more variables to produce an estimate of one of those variables given knowledge of the other variables.

Stressed

IPC phase 2 - . Households have minimally adequate food consumption but are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in stress-coping strategies.

See International Phase Classification (IPC).

Structure

refers Refers to the number and size distribution of buyers and sellers, the degree of product differentiation and the ease of entry of new firms into an industry.

Structure‐Conduct‐Performance (SCP)

A framework or an approach to market analysis that is based on the premise that the structure of a market influences the conduct of its participants (buyers, sellers, and other participants), which, in turn, influences the performance of markets.

Substitute

good

Also, Substitute Commodity commodity

A commodity that can replace another in consumption or production, such as millet for sorghum. When the price of one commodity rises, consumers will decrease their consumption of it and increase consumption of the substitute commodity. Wild and gathered products can be substitutes.

Supply

chain

The series of production, transformation, and transfer activities/functions that start with raw material and natural resources and ultimately provide a product for sale to a consumer.

Supply

chain level

A segment of the supply chain, comprising of a specific activity or a small set of specific activities (e.g. packaging and storage).

Supply

curve

The relationship between the price of a commodity and the quantity that sellers are willing or able to sell, with all other things being equal. For most commodities, there is a direct relationship between price and quantity supplied: a rise in price is associated with a rise in quantity supplied.

Surplus

areas

Areas that produce in excess of that what is demanded locally and therefore can provision other areas.

Survival

threshold

Also, Survival Needsneeds

The total food and cash income required to cover the food and non-food items necessary for survival in the short term. It includes:

1. 100% of minimum food energy needs;

2. The costs associated with food preparation and consumption; and

3. Where applicable, the cost of water for human consumption.