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The combination of the probability of an event (hazard) and households’ vulnerability to the hazard along with their capacity to cope. Risk = f (hazard × vulnerability/coping).

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Scenario

In the context of food security analysis, an informed “if/then” analysis that communicates shocks, their impacts on household food and income sources, response by both households and other actors, and the net food security outcomes for different households in specific geographic areas. Scenarios are rooted in a series of reasonable assumptions based on existing conditions, historical information, and expert judgment. Scenarios are used to project future food security outcomes and inform decision-making processes.

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Scenario development

A methodology for forecasting future events. It relies on analysis of the current situation, the creation of informed assumptions about the future, a comparison of their possible effects, and the likely responses of various actors.

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Scenario outcome

A quantified estimate of access to food and cash arising from an outcome analysis, taking into account the effects of the hazard and household responses to it, for each of the wealth groups.

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Shock

An atypical event or series of events (either rapid or slow-onset) that have a significant impact. Shocks can be positive (e.g. a significantly better-than-average harvest) or negative (e.g., a failed harvest or rising food prices). A shock differs from a hazard in that it is an event that has already occurred or is occurring, while a hazard indicates a potential threat.

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