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A year in history that shares key characteristics with the current year and can therefore help to support assumptions about how the current year may progress. In food security analysis, analogue years are most commonly used in relation to climate and seasonal forecasts. Information about current atmospheric and oceanic conditions/patterns is used to identify similar years that may suggest likely precipitation and temperature behavior. Analogue years can also be used to look at other issues, such as market behavior and food prices.
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Assumptions
For the purpose of scenario development, assumptions are judgments about the anticipated type, magnitude, and timing of future events or conditions. Assumptions are the product of an analysis of current conditions (e.g., rainfall pattern to date), past experiences (a reference period, or how a similar series of events unfolded, such as a previous drought), official or unofficial estimates or projections, qualitative or quantitative data, and/or expert judgment. Assumptions can be made at any level of analysis (i.e., household, village, market, district, national, regional, or international). Assumptions form the basis of a scenario and support and reasonably limit its scope.
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Availability
One of the four pillars of food security. The total amount of food that is present in a country or given area by means of domestic production, imports, food stocks, and food aid.
Availability of sufficient quantities of food of appropriate quality, supplied through domestic production or imports (including food aid).
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